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A question that I’m starting to hear more and more is, “Are we headed towards a bust after this boom?” It’s no secret that we’re in a crazy real estate market. We have record-breaking numbers when we look at DFW as a whole. Looking at data over the last 10 years, here are the records we’re breaking:
With this information at hand, it’s hard to not question if we’re in a bubble and speculate when it might crash because we all saw what that did in 2006.
Well, there are some stark differences from this market compared to that one. In that market, adjustable rate mortgages stretched many buyers and we had stated income loans that didn’t require documentation. Today our inventory is lower, much lower, builders are underproducing compared to their historical averages, and we have a nation-wide housing shortage. Not to mention we have so much more regulation with lending that risky loans aren’t being showered on buyers like they once were. So, to answer the question, this all means that our current risk level for a bust is much lower than the last time the market was driven up. Hopefully that brings you a little peace if you’re in the real estate market at this time. And if you’re thinking of selling, your competition is at a record-low level. I highly encourage you to take advantage of this market that’s in your favor more than it has been in a decade. If that's you, let's talk. Contact me and I will follow up with you about selling in this market. And if you have a real estate question you want answered, contact me.
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Interest Rates
http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms/ Mortgage rates did go up slightly but they’re still about a percentage point below where they were a year ago. Average rates are at 2.84% with .7% paid in fees and points for a thirty-year, fixed-rate mortgage. Mortgage Applications Mortgage applications give us insight into the upcoming buyer demand. Simply put, when more people apply for mortgages, it means more people are out shopping for homes. We actually saw a decrease in mortgage applications over last week. That’s to be expected since this is the time of year when the market traditionally slows. But only getting a .5 decrease in demand isn’t that substantial when you consider that we still have 16% more buyers in the market now than we did this same time last year. I want to point out how much this number is starting to dwindle. We have consistently seen over 20% more buyers in the market for months, so perhaps the feeding frenzy for real estate is starting to soften a tiny bit. Refinances, on the other hand, are a completely different story. Those are up 67% compared to the same time last year. This is causing a lot of issues for lenders, big and small, who just aren’t staffed to handle the demand. We’re beginning to see a lot of loans, even on new purchases, take longer than 30 days to close. As far as closing on your refinance… well that can take months. Literally months to close on that loan. https://www.mba.org/2020-press-releases/november/mortgage-applications-decrease-in-latest-mba-weekly-survey Local Market News Now on to local real estate market news for Rockwall. For this local market data, I use numbers from single-family home sales in Rockwall County. These numbers are based on sales data from October. The average sales price is at $417,832. That’s an 29% increase from just one year ago. The number of homes for sale is at 264 homes. Compared to this time last year when there were 665 homes for sale, we are down 60% in inventory available to purchase. And remember, we have 16% more buyers in the market right now. Rockwall County had 234 sales in October. We actually had the same number of sales as we did in September. That is not typical. Usually we see sales decline from September to October. We’re up 40% in the number of sales from this same time last year. The average days on market is 43 days before going under contract, compared with 64 days from last year. Our months of inventory is down more from last month and is now at 1.2 months. This number tells us that based on current demand, if no new listings came on the market, it would take about five weeks for all of the current inventory to be purchased. Six months of inventory is considered a balanced market. So when we’re less than six months of inventory, that’s seller’s market territory. We listed 230 homes in October which is actually higher than what we typically see this time of year. In percent sales price to list price, sellers only had to negotiate about 2% off the asking price of their home to get a sale which is the same as it was last year. Our average sales price per square foot is at $148 per square foot. In October of last year, we were at $129. The Takeaway I’m not sure how long I’ll be able to keep reporting this same information and tell you that it’s a great time to be a seller and it’s also a great time to be a buyer. With incredibly low interest rates you can afford a lot more of a house as a buyer than you previously would’ve been able to. And as the seller if you’re priced right and your home is presented well, then you’re likely getting multiple offers. And we’re seeing strong numbers at all purchase price levels, not just the lower end of the range. If I’ve said it once I’ve said it a thousand times, it’s a great time to be a seller right now. If you’re in a position where you want to sell or need to sell, let’s talk. You can contact me at 214-803-4444 or email me at jshannon@kw.com. Just curious to know what your home might sell for in today’s market? Click HERE to get an instant market analysis on your home delivered right to your email inbox. If you want to buy in Rockwall, contact me to get started now so we can get you closed on a home before the end of the year. So have a happy Thanksgiving and I’ll see you next month! Hello Rockwall! Welcome to the Rockwall Real Estate Market Update. This is for anyone interested to know what’s happening in the Rockwall real estate market. Each month I take the highlights from the news and market data then condense them into a quick update you can be in-the-know on the real estate market.
Here’s your update for the month now that the numbers for August numbers are in. Interest Rates Let’s start with interest rates. During the month of August, interest rates stayed below the 3% mark (not including fees and points) and kept a lot of buyers in the market. On September 10, Freddie Mac announced that mortgage rates have hit another all-time low due to the slowing economic recovery. They also pointed out that buyer demand has been growing at double digit rates for four consecutive months and sustaining that growth will be a challenge given the already short supply of homes for sale. On Wednesday, September 9, the Mortgage Bankers Association reported that mortgage applications increased 2.9% from the week prior. This is the time of year we typically start to that number decrease week-to-week, so we’re going against the historical trend. In addition we have 40% more people applying for mortgages than we did this same time last year. The Economy Another major factor at play for our market of the moment is the status of our economy and overall economic sentiment. Now before your eyes glaze over at the mention of the word, “economy,” hear me out, it’s good stuff. In general, buyers are sensitive to what the news says about the future and it’s easier for them to purchase a home when they don’t have to be as fearful of the economy and whether or not they’ll have a job next month. On a national scale, according to Bloomberg’s Recover Tracker, we’re seeing some positive indicators for a continued recovery.
For Texas, the Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University says that if projections become reality, in a span of four months we could recuperate around 44% of the 1.4 million jobs lost between March and April. https://www.recenter.tamu.edu/articles/special-report/COVID-19-Impact-Projections According to the Dallas-Fort Worth Economic Indicators report released on August 28th, the area is continuing to recover from the effects of the downturn. We saw an increase in payrolls and a decrease in unemployment. Local Market News For local market data, I use numbers from single-family home sales in Rockwall County. The average sales price is up about $7,248 from last month and is now at $376,704. We had 326 sales for the month of August this year. Last year we had 248 sales. That’s a 31% increase. As for how many homes we have available to purchase, in August of this year we had 337 active listings. Now compare that to last year when we had 655 active listings, that’s a 49% drop in available homes to buy. To drive this point home a little more. As I mentioned earlier, we have 40% more buyers applying to get a mortgage and we have 49% fewer homes they have to choose from. You can see, this causes quite the predicament for buyers. Our current supply of inventory is down to 1.6 months. That means that if no new homes were listed on the market, it would take about six weeks for our current inventory of homes to be purchased. Last year at this time we had 3.8 months of inventory on the market. The average days on market is 50 days before going under contract. Last month it was two weeks more at 64 days, so homes are selling faster at a time when the market generally starts to slow down. Our average sales price per square foot has gone up to $139.This time last year it was at $130 per square foot. In percent sales price to list price, sellers have to negotiate about 2% of the asking price of their home to get a sale, which is the same as last year. When you look at our average sales price, that is a roughly $7,500 decrease. Now you might pause and say, wait, why do sellers have to negotiate at all with this market? Can’t they just name their price and call it a day? Well, not exactly. Anyone buying a home with a loan has to get an appraisal on their home. Since prices have jumped so quickly and by so much, appraisals aren’t following suit. Some buyers are being too aggressive in their pricing and because of comps and appraisals, end up having to come down on their sales price. So while it’s still an incredibly great time to be a seller, you still have to pay attention to your pricing and overall positioning of your home in this market. The Takeaway It’s the same as last month, if you’re a seller and your home is presented well in this market, the numbers favor you tremendously. Because supply is dwindling against the demand, we’re seeing a rapid increase in prices and therefore, appraisal issues are starting to creep up again. If you’re thinking of selling, we can help guide you through that process. Right now our sellers are getting top-dollar for their homes. We believe that if you put your home on the market now, you will get the most amount of money that you’re going to get for some time. Why do we say that? There’s a great likelihood that in a few months, or four months, or six months, things could change dramatically. We cannot predict the future. If you’re in a place where you want to sell or if you need to sell, what I want to share with you is that this is a great time to do it. If you’re a buyer, buying is a little more difficult at this time. You’ll want to work with an agent who has experience in negotiating multiple offer situations. Here at The Patty Turner Group, we’ve been on both sides of the multiple offer table and have great insight as to how to write and present offers to sellers in a way that favorably positions your terms. And that’s the market update for this month. This is a time when it’s critical to have a knowledgeable and experienced agent on your side whether you’re buying or selling. So, if you’re looking to buy or sell real estate in Rockwall, let’s talk. You can call or text at 214-803-4444.
Interest Rates
Well, you’ve probably heard the big news by now: The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage hit an all-time low at 3.29% this week with .7% in fees and points. It’s now the lowest it has been in its nearly 50-year history. 
What you’ve also probably heard was that the Federal Reserve cut rates on Tuesday in a knee-jerk reaction to fears of what the fallout from the coronavirus will do to our economy. On Wednesday it looked like we might possibly be on the trend up in the stock market but Thursday ended with the Dow down nearly 1,000 points. It’s been a bit of a rollercoaster ride for stocks and that might continue if more news of new cases in the US keep being reported.
Mortgage Applications Mortgage Applications showed a sharp increase of 15.1% from one week prior. The refinance index increased 26% from one week prior and was 224% higher than the same week one year ago. Market News How does the coronavirus affect new construction? There are two events home builders are preparing for. The first is that there may be supply-chain issues on building materials that may cause holdups in the upcoming months. The second thing they’re bracing for is a rebound. According to the National Association of Home Builders Chief Economist, Robert Dietz, we tend to see an economic rebound following “black swan” events such as natural disasters and health epidemics. We’ll have to see what happens to the supply chain and demand in the upcoming weeks and months to get a clear picture on how home builders will ultimately be affected. This week CoreLogic released their Home Price Insights report with analysis through January 2020 and forecasts from February 2020. It’s designed to give us the heads-up on home price trends. Some key takeaways from the report are:
Local Market News The Case-Shiller Dallas Home Price Index is down 21 basis points to 192.81 for December compared to November 2019. When you look at the numbers year-over-year, you get a modest increase of 2.6%. The areas with the largest year-over-year price gains were Phoenix at 6.5%, Charlotte at 5.3%, and Tampa at 5.2% This index measures the average change in value of all existing single-family housing stock. There’s a two-month lag in publishing the index levels, so that’s why we just now have numbers for December. The Takeaway Based on the news and the conversations I’m having with other real estate folks, we’re not sure how long the low interest rates will offset the economic issues that might linger from the effects of the coronavirus. While we hope that people will take advantage of the low rates, economic uncertainty does tend to have buyers press the pause button on home purchase activity. The mortgage application news isn’t showing that happening yet, so I’ll keep watching that metric closely to see if the momentum begins to shift.
Interest Rates
For the third week in a row, rates have dropped and the experts over at Freddie Mac say the signals all point to home purchase demand continuing to rise over the next few months. Rates are currently at 3.45% with .7% in fees and points for a thirty-year fixed rate mortgage. The lowest on record was the week ending on November 21, 2012 when interest rates for a 30-year mortgage were at 3.31%. One theory on what’s driving mortgage rates lower is, believe it or not, the coronavirus. How? Well, experts predict the coronavirus will begin to slow economic growth in China. That uncertainty brought down the 10-year treasury yield, which then brought down interest rates. 
Mortgage Applications
Mortgage applications increased from the week before by 5% and they’re up 11% from this time a year ago. Applications are currently at their highest levels since May 2013. In other mortgage news, credit availability decreased in January. It wasn’t by much but the Mortgage Credit Availability Index fell by 2 basis points in January. This means that lending standards are getting stricter. This decline came from the reduction of low credit score, high-LTV programs. Market News The Texas Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University released their Texas Housing Insight Report. The big takeaways from the report are:
The Takeaway The numbers from 2019 show, at least to me, that growth was pretty controlled last year. I’d predict this year builds on that growth a little more since there was a lot of hesitation last year with buyers due to economic uncertainty. Rates appear to be a good driver of getting buyers back in the game for purchasing a home this year.
Interest Rates
Surprise, surprise, mortgage rates have dropped again! We haven’t seen a rate this low in three years. For a thirty-year fixed rate mortgage the average is 3.51% with .7% in fees and points. 
Mortgage Applications
In the latest weekly survey, mortgage applications rose 7.2% from one week earlier. Market News On Thursday, January 30, the U.S. Census Bureau released their Quarterly Residential Vacancies and Homeownership report covering the fourth quarter of 2019. About 88.5% of the housing units were occupied, leaving vacancies at 11.5%. Owner-occupied units made up 57.6% of the total housing units and renter-occupied units made up 30.9%. The homeownership rate is on the rise after a major dip in 2016. In 2005 the homeownership rate was at its highest it has been this decade at 69.1%. The Case-Shiller housing price index for November was released on Tuesday. The index is currently at 212.56, a change of 15 basis points from last month. The Case-Shiller housing price index looks at the value of the housing supply in twenty individual metro areas and compiles those int a merged index. Of those metro areas, the ones with the highest year-over-year gains were Phoenix, Charlotte, and Tampa. Dallas had a year-over-year change of a positive 2.8%. In more local news, Texas is the second most popular state for relocating according to the Texas Realtors’ 2020 Relocation Report. The data tracks numbers from 2018. The metros bringing the highest volume of residents to DFW are Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, New York-Newark-Jersey City, and Chicago-Naperville-Elgin. DFW had the highest number of incoming residents from out of stats at 200,966. What’s also interesting to note is that we had 462,140 residents move out of state in 2018. Where’d they go? California, Oklahoma, and Colorado mostly. The Takeaway With homeownership on the rise, low interest rates, a positive economic outlook, and an upcoming spring market, my crystal ball tells me that it’s about to get busy for Realtors.
Interest Rates
While interest rates did go up one basis point this week, they’re still holding relatively steady and are at 3.65% with .7% in fees and points for a thirty-year fixed rate mortgage. 
Mortgage Applications
In the latest Mortgage Bankers Association weekly survey, mortgage applications increased 30.2% from one week earlier on a seasonally adjusted basis. It was a strong start to the year for the mortgage industry. In fact, it was 8% higher than the same time a year ago. Refinances were also way up by 43%. National Market News The National Association of Home Builders released the Wells Fargo Housing Market Index yesterday. This index measures builder sentiment of current single-family sales conditions and expectations for the next six months as “good,” “fair,” or “poor.” A number over 50 means more builders view conditions as good. This month’s index is at 75, which is one point lower than last month. However, these last two months are the highest sentiment levels since July 1999. Other metrics from this index are:
What’s fueling this positive wave of the industry? It’s interest rates, the steady rise in single-family construction, a healthy labor market, and the need for additional inventory. Local Market News
There are a few places that ended the year with less than one month of inventory available. The availability is tight in:
The Takeaway For the next year we will keep hearing about inventory shortages and a lack of affordable housing. So if you have a home to sell that’s at a more affordable price, you’ll be in a great position to sell this year. If you like hearing these stats and want more detailed data on your neighborhood, head over to CrestEdgeRealEstate.com/neighborhoods. For any questions or feedback on this podcast, you can contact us on our website. If you’re looking to buy or sell real estate in DFW, let’s talk. Contact us on our website or call us at 214-803-4444.
Interest Rates
Rates are currently the same as last week at 3.73% with .7% in fees and points. According to Freddie Mac, the economy is in a “Sweet Spot.” http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms/ 
Mortgage Applications
Applications decreased 5% from one week earlier. Even though applications were down compared to the week before, they’re 10% higher than the same week one year ago. https://www.mba.org/2019-press-releases/december/mortgage-applications-decrease-in-latest-mba-weekly-survey-x261714 DFW Market News The numbers from November are in. When we compare this year-to-date data on single family homes to last year’s we get the following changes:
The hottest areas are pretty close to where they were last month: #5 – Bedford #4 – Grand Prairie (area 271) #3 – Dallas Southeast #2 – Arlington Central SE #1 – Arlington Central NE The inventory in these areas are six weeks or less. Meaning if no new listings came on the market, it would take about six weeks to sell all homes for sale given the current demand. http://www.mymetrotex.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/NTREIS201911.pdf The Takeaway We’re closing on the end of the year and things are steady. Sellers still have the market, especially for anything in an affordable, more average price-point.
Interest Rates
Mortgage rates increased a little from last week due to the overall positive economic sentiment. The economy is growing at a steady pace, fears of an economic downturn have diminished, and the job market is strong. Generally positive economic news leads to a slightly higher interest rates. Rates are up 5 basis points from last week and average 3.73% with .7% in fees and points for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage.
Mortgage applications
Due to the positive economic outlook, the slight increase in rates did not deter prospective buyers from applying for a home loan. Mortgage applications increased 3.8 percent from a week earlier. In other mortgage news, CoreLogic released their home equity report for the third quarter of this year and it shows that homeowners who owe more on their mortgages that what their homes are worth is down to just 3.7% of all mortgaged properties. To put that in perspective, at the height of the great recession ten years ago, that number was up to 25% of all mortgaged homes.
DFW Market and Economic News
The National Association of Realtors released their Housing 2020 Forecast, making predictions into what the market will look like in 2020. The forecast predicts that on a national level, home price growth will flatten, inventory will remain constrained, mortgage rates will stay under 4.0%, and that preferential treatment will be given to mid-sized markets that have more affordable products. 
Here’s a crazy stat for you:
The largest population cohort in the country is those who were born in 1990. That group will turn 30 this year. Millennials will account for more than half of all mortgages next year. 
Here’s where NAR’s report starts to break down for me.
They predict that sales growth in Dallas will be down 4.9% and the price growth will be down 0.5%. Now I’m not an economist and I don’t have all the data that NAR used to create their predictions. But I know what I see in the field. I’ll start with saying that it is possible we will see fewer homes listed next year as sellers might resist listing their homes since prices aren’t growing at break-neck speed and sellers aren’t making money hand over fist. However, I think buyers would want to take advantage of low interest rates and less aggressive pricing scenarios, bringing up the demand And for prices to go down? I just don’t see how that makes a lot of sense for what’s happening in DFW. If we look at the past as an indication of the future, we keep hearing about businesses choosing to relocate to DFW because of the corporate friendly environment we have with our tax structure and overall cost of living. We also have a good job candidate pool with multiple universities feeding into the local labor market. Just a few weeks ago we learned that Charles Schwab will move its headquarters to DFW. They’re currently building out their campus that holds 1600 employees to hold up to 6000 employees. We have a strong multifamily housing market with an apartment occupancy of 95.5% according to the Dallas FED. Builders aren’t building enough inventory to keep up with the demand. Considering housing options are tightening while more people are coming to the area, I struggle to see why prices wouldn’t increase at all next year and why we’ll sell so fewer homes. Only time will tell whose crystal ball is correct. 
The Takeaway
If you’re a seller looking to sell a moderately-priced home in 2020, you’ll have a good amount of demand for your home. Buyers, if you’re looking for a home that’s above the affordable range, it will be a great time for you. With interest rates projecting to be below 4% and pricing to cool at the higher levels, you might have more buying power in 2020 than you would’ve in 2019.
Interest Rates
Mortgage rates are holding steady with no change from last week. They’re currently at 3.68% with .5% in fees and points for a thirty-year fixed-rate mortgage. 
Last week Freddie Mac’s economic and housing research group released their housing market forecast. They predict the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate will be 3.8% for the rest of this month.
Looking beyond, they expect rates to average 3.8% in 2020 and 2021. For home sales, they expect the number of homes sold to increase each year but they predict the growth of prices will slow over the next two years. They’re forecasting prices to increase 2.9% next year and increase only 2.1% in 2021. 
Prepared by the Economic & Housing Research group © 2019 by Freddie Mac.
Mortgage applications
Mortgage applications are down 9.2% from last week. The Mortgage Banker’s Association Vice President of Economic and Industry Forecasting, Joel Kan said, "The purchase market overall looks healthy as we enter the home stretch of 2019. The seasonally adjusted purchase index was at its highest level since July, as a combination of wage gains, slower home-price appreciation, and slightly easing inventory conditions continue to support increased activity." One last tidbit on mortgages, credit availability increased in November. This means that lending standards are loosening. Investors are becoming more willing to purchase loans with lower credit scores and higher LTV ratios.
DFW Economic News
The Dallas FED released their Economic Indicators report that told us economic expansion has slowed a little and unemployment went up a little, though it’s still near historic lows. The apartment market is strong and is second for demand in the nation behind New York. Occupancy is high, at 95.5% and rents increased this quarter 2.9 percent from last year. If you want a little perspective, rents have increased 65% since 2010. DFW Real Estate Market News Here’s a look at the initial numbers for October sales for all properties listed on the MLS.
The Takeaway All indicators keep pointing that the market is going to stay about where it is for the foreseeable future. If you’re looking to buy or sell real estate in DFW, let’s talk. Contact us on our website or call us at 214-803-4444. |
AuthorJennifer Shannon is a Texas real estate agent and broker, licensed since 2006. Archives
January 2021
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